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Midseason Bowl Projections for College Football: The Impact of the New CFP Format on the Upcoming Bowl Season

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The Dawn of a New Era in College Football: A True Selection Sunday

The landscape of college football is set to undergo a seismic shift with the introduction of the expanded College Football Playoff (CFP), which will culminate in a moment that fans have long awaited: a true Selection Sunday. While men’s basketball has captivated audiences with its annual bracket reveal, college football is poised to join the ranks of sports that build anticipation and excitement through a structured selection process. Mark your calendars for December 8, as this date will herald the unveiling of the 12-team playoff format, bringing a new level of drama to the sport.

The New Playoff Format: How It Works

The expanded CFP will feature a selection committee that ranks the top 25 teams in the nation. From this pool, the 12-team playoff field will be composed of the highest-ranked five conference champions and seven at-large teams. This new structure not only enhances the competitive landscape but also ensures that deserving teams from various conferences have a shot at the national title.

The top four conference champions will earn a coveted first-round bye, while the fifth champion and the seven at-large teams will compete on four campuses on December 20-21. The matchups will see seeds 5-8 hosting seeds 9-12, setting the stage for thrilling contests that will determine who advances to the quarterfinals.

Key Dates and Locations

The playoff schedule is packed with excitement, beginning with the first round on December 20-21. The quarterfinals will take place in four prestigious bowl games on December 31 and January 1, including the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl. The semifinals will follow on January 9 and 10, hosted by the Orange and Cotton Bowls, respectively. Finally, the championship game will be held on January 20 in Atlanta, promising a grand finale to the season.

The Bowl System: A Complex Landscape

While the expanded playoff is a significant development, it is just one part of the intricate tapestry of college football’s postseason. The sport features a staggering 34 bowl games, with locations ranging from The Bahamas to Boise, Idaho. Power conferences have established agreements with various bowls for their non-playoff teams, while Group of 5 conferences navigate a mix of bowl contracts and ESPN Events to secure matchups.

This year’s bowl season is particularly noteworthy due to the recent realignment of conferences, which has left the Pac-12 in a state of flux. Despite the upheaval, the remaining bowls have maintained their contracts, leading to a unique situation where former Pac-12 teams will still be selected by affiliated bowls, even as they compete in new conferences.

Midseason Projections: Who’s In?

As we reach the midpoint of the season, projections for the playoff are already taking shape. According to Stewart Mandel’s latest projections, teams like Texas, Ohio State, Miami, and Iowa State are poised to earn first-round byes. Meanwhile, Boise State, as the fifth conference champion, is projected to enter the playoff as the 12th seed.

The at-large teams are shaping up to include Oregon, Penn State, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame, and LSU. The matchups promise to be thrilling, with Oregon hosting Boise State, and LSU traveling to Penn State, among other exciting contests.

The Bowl Breakdown: Navigating the Selection Process

Beyond the playoff, the bowl selection process is a complex dance of negotiations and strategic decisions. Each bowl has its own selection criteria, influenced by conference agreements and historical relationships. For instance, the Alamo Bowl has the top selection for both the Big 12 and Pac-12, but with the caveat that it can only select from a limited pool of teams due to the recent realignment.

This year, the Alamo Bowl might face tough choices, such as selecting Colorado, a new Big 12 member, or opting for a former Pac-12 team like USC or Washington State. The ripple effects of these decisions can significantly impact the bowl landscape, as teams jockey for position and favorable matchups.

The Influence of Conferences on Bowl Selections

Each conference has its own approach to bowl selections. The SEC, for example, consults with its teams and bowl partners to determine placements, while the Big Ten allows bowls to draft teams after extensive discussions. This dynamic can lead to strategic decisions that prioritize certain teams over others, ensuring that top performers receive prime bowl placements.

The Excitement Ahead

As college football fans gear up for the expanded playoff and the accompanying bowl season, the anticipation is palpable. The new format promises to deliver a level of excitement and engagement that has been missing from the sport, allowing fans to immerse themselves in the drama of selection and competition. With the stakes higher than ever, December 8 will mark a pivotal moment in college football history, ushering in a new era of postseason play that fans will not want to miss.

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