The Ever-Changing Landscape of College Football Playoff Projections
Every week, the College Football Playoff (CFP) picture seems to get flipped upside down in some respect. Week 8 did not disappoint — and with the intensity of this season, it’s hard to imagine many weeks could. The drama unfolded dramatically as Georgia traveled to Austin and took down No. 1 Texas, while Alabama suffered a shocking loss at Tennessee. Meanwhile, Indiana continues its surprising ascent in the Playoff conversation, now finding itself in the bracket while the Crimson Tide have fallen out.
The Weekly Stock Market of College Football
Every Tuesday, I analyze teams that have either increased or decreased their stock in the Playoff picture based on my projections model. The nature of the 12-team Playoff format, coupled with the growing parity in college football, means no team is ever truly safe — just ask Alabama. As we head into Week 9, my projections indicate only eight teams have a greater than 52 percent chance of making the Playoff: Oregon (96 percent), Miami (93), Georgia (93), Ohio State (90), Penn State (90), Texas (75), Notre Dame (75), and Clemson (64).
With at least four spots wide open and 15 more teams holding at least a 10 percent chance of making the Playoff, let’s dive into the rising stock of Indiana, the plummeting stock of Alabama, and a couple of key matchups to watch this weekend.
Stock Up: Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana’s name has popped up on this list before, but the Hoosiers deserve another shoutout after demolishing Nebraska 56-7. They are 7-0 for the first time since 1967, and my model projects them to have a 65 percent or greater chance of winning in every remaining game except for their trip to Ohio State. This puts them in a strong position for a Playoff bid after being completely off the radar in the preseason.
The wild card for Indiana is quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has been pivotal this season and even garnered Heisman Trophy talk. He ranks first in the FBS in expected points added (EPA) per dropback and dropback success rate among qualified quarterbacks. However, Rourke suffered a thumb injury during the Nebraska game and will not play against Washington this Saturday. Backup quarterback Tayven Jackson stepped in admirably, going 7-for-8 for 91 yards and two touchdowns in relief. While Jackson may not match Rourke’s production, the remaining schedule is manageable, especially considering Michigan’s recent struggles.
My model gives Indiana a 52 percent chance to make the Playoff, projecting them as the No. 10 seed facing off against No. 7 seed Texas.
Stock Down: Alabama Crimson Tide
How quickly fortunes can change in college football. After a win against Georgia, Alabama had a 94 percent chance to make the Playoff heading into its game against Vanderbilt on October 5. Just three weeks later, that number has plummeted to 49 percent. The loss to Tennessee was somewhat expected, but the defeat at Vanderbilt was a shocker. Despite Vanderbilt’s improved performance, this upset will linger in the minds of Crimson Tide fans.
Alabama’s path to the Playoff is now razor-thin. They must win out to have a shot, but losing two games before November for the first time since Nick Saban’s debut in 2007 has left them with little margin for error. The issues plaguing Alabama are multifaceted; their defense has been vulnerable, and the offense has struggled to find its rhythm. Additionally, they rank 128th in penalty yards per game, which is a glaring concern. Upcoming games against Missouri and LSU will be critical tests for Alabama as they attempt to salvage their season.
My model currently has Alabama on the bubble as the first team out of the Playoff, while Tennessee has moved into the bracket with a 50 percent chance of making the field — up from 31 percent last week.
Mountain West Spotlight: Boise State vs. UNLV
Boise State has been the Group of 5 Playoff participant in my projections since the preseason, but this Friday night’s matchup against UNLV will put that status to the test. The Broncos are favored by only three points, and a win would significantly bolster their Playoff odds. Currently, Boise State’s only loss is to Oregon, and if they can win out, they will be in a strong position.
If Boise State wins, their Playoff odds would increase to 55 percent from 33 percent. Conversely, if UNLV pulls off the upset, their odds would rise to 52 percent from 32 percent, while Boise State’s would drop to 20 percent. This game is crucial for both teams as they vie for a potential spot in the Playoff conversation.
What If Navy Beats Notre Dame?
Navy, currently ranked No. 24, faces a season-defining game against No. 12 Notre Dame this Saturday in East Rutherford, N.J. The undefeated Midshipmen have only a 6 percent chance to make the Playoff, largely due to their challenging schedule that includes Notre Dame and Tulane. However, if Navy were to pull off the upset, their Playoff odds would increase to 10 percent, while Notre Dame’s would plummet from 75 percent to 38 percent.
Oddsmakers currently give Navy only a 20 percent chance of winning, but if they can defy the odds, it would mark one of their biggest victories in recent memory and add unexpected layers to the Playoff implications for both teams.
As the season progresses, the College Football Playoff picture remains fluid, with surprises lurking around every corner. The stakes are high, and every game counts as teams fight for their chance at glory.