NFL Parlay Picks for Week 3: A Deep Dive into Longshots and Higher-Probability Bets
As we gear up for another thrilling week of NFL action, the excitement is palpable with 15 games on the slate for Sunday and Monday. Week 3 presents a plethora of opportunities for parlay enthusiasts, and I’m diving in with two distinct strategies: a longshot parlay boasting odds of over 132-1 and a higher-probability parlay that offers a more conservative approach. Let’s break down the picks and the reasoning behind each leg.
Longshot NFL Parlay: Aiming for the Stars
Parlay Legs and Odds
- Seahawks -9.5: +176
- Geno Smith 250+ Passing Yards: +130
- Rashid Shaheed 75+ Receiving Yards: +240
- Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown: +162
- Packers -2.5: +160
Total 5-Leg Parlay Odds: +13242 (available at bet365)
The longshot parlay is where the real thrill lies, and this week, I’m banking on some bold predictions. If you place a $1 bet on this parlay, you stand to win $132.42, while a $5 bet could yield a whopping $657.14. Here’s why I’m confident in each leg:
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Seahawks -9.5: The Seahawks are facing a Dolphins team that has shown vulnerabilities, especially in their secondary. With Kenneth Walker likely sidelined, Seattle may lean heavily on the passing game, allowing Geno Smith to exploit mismatches. The Seahawks’ defense should also stifle Miami’s offense, leading to a comfortable victory.
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Geno Smith 250+ Passing Yards: After a stellar performance against the Patriots, where he threw for 327 yards, Smith is poised to continue his success. The Dolphins rank poorly in net yards per pass attempt, and with a potential game script favoring the pass, I see Smith easily surpassing the 250-yard mark.
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Rashid Shaheed 75+ Receiving Yards: Shaheed has been a revelation this season, with impressive yardage in his first two games. The Eagles’ secondary has struggled, allowing significant yardage per attempt. With the Saints likely needing to air it out, Shaheed’s speed and ability to stretch the field make this a favorable bet.
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Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown: Godwin has been a reliable target for Baker Mayfield, and with the potential absence of key defenders like Pat Surtain, he could find the end zone. His target share has been solid, and I like the odds of him scoring in this matchup.
- Packers -2.5: The Packers have shown promise under Matt LaFleur, and my analysis suggests they could win by a significant margin. With Malik Willis expected to start for the Titans, the Packers’ defense should capitalize on any mistakes, leading to a comfortable win.
Higher-Probability NFL Parlay: Playing It Safe
Parlay Legs and Odds
- Seahawks Over 16.5 Points: -450
- Jordan Mason 75+ Rushing Yards: -290
- Derek Carr 200+ Passing Yards: -360
Total 3-Leg Parlay Odds: +110 (available at bet365)
For those looking for a safer bet, this higher-probability parlay offers a more conservative approach with solid payouts. Here’s the breakdown:
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Seahawks Over 16.5 Points: Given the offensive firepower of the Seahawks and their favorable matchup against a struggling Dolphins defense, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they don’t score at least 17 points. This leg feels like a lock, especially considering the potential for a high-scoring affair.
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Jordan Mason 75+ Rushing Yards: With Christian McCaffrey sidelined, Mason has stepped up significantly, rushing for over 100 yards in both games this season. The Rams’ defense has been porous against the run, allowing 5.5 yards per carry. With the likely absence of key offensive players, Mason will be leaned on heavily, making this a solid bet.
- Derek Carr 200+ Passing Yards: Carr has been efficient in his first two games, averaging a league-high 11.4 yards per attempt. The Eagles’ defense has struggled against the pass, and even if the Saints control the game, Carr should easily surpass the 200-yard mark given his current form.
Conclusion
With a mix of high-risk, high-reward options and safer bets, Week 3 of the NFL season is shaping up to be an exciting one for parlay enthusiasts. Whether you’re chasing the longshot or playing it safe, there are plenty of opportunities to capitalize on the matchups. As always, do your research, bet responsibly, and enjoy the games!