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HomeNCAABNCAAB Predictions, Picks, and Odds: 2024-25 America East Betting Analysis

NCAAB Predictions, Picks, and Odds: 2024-25 America East Betting Analysis

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A Deep Dive into the America East Conference: 2024-25 Preview

Growing up in Vermont, I was immersed in the world of Catamount basketball. The thrill of the game, the camaraderie of fans, and the excitement of college basketball created a lifelong passion for the sport. As I followed the league, I became an America East fanatic, and as my career in sports writing progressed, I finally convinced my editors to let me cover the league as an in-depth beat writer. These conference preview pieces are the most important thing I write all year, and this season, I’m pulling out all the stops.

This year, I had the privilege of interviewing five of the nine head coaches in the America East, gaining invaluable insights into this relatively unknown low-major league. And perhaps you should know about it—the America East is on the rise in the college basketball world.

The Rise of America East

Last season, the America East finished 21st in KenPom’s conference ratings, its highest finish since 2013. The league saw some impressive victories, including Bryant’s win over FAU, Maine’s triumph over South Florida, and Vermont’s victory against Charleston. With eight of the league’s 15 All-Conference players returning this year, and only one of those seven losses coming via the transfer portal, the America East boasts the sixth-most returning minutes of any college basketball conference. Players want to play in this league, and it’s easy to see why.

The America East is not just about returning talent; it’s also about style. With teams like Bryant, Albany, New Hampshire, UMBC, and UMass Lowell embracing a faster pace, the America East became the fastest-paced conference in the nation last season, averaging 71 possessions per game. This year, we can expect more shootouts, reminiscent of the thrilling 114-102 regulation game between UMBC and Albany last February.

2024-25 America East Regular Season NCAAB Conference Title Odds

The America East Big Three

In 1987, Northeastern, led by future NBA All-Star Reggie Lewis, won its fourth-straight Eastern Collegiate Athletic Conference North tournament title. The conference has undergone two name changes since, but the America East Conference Tournament Most Outstanding Player award is still named after Lewis. This year, John Becker and Vermont will attempt to repeat the Huskies’ feat nearly 40 years later.

“We’re excited about the opportunity,” Becker says. “I think there’s more excitement than the weight of expectations.” The Catamounts have won at least a share of the regular-season title for eight consecutive seasons, capping off a 15-1 season last year while fending off challengers like UMass Lowell and Bryant.

“Bryant and Lowell have been knocking on the door the past couple of years,” Becker notes. “I think that will make for a really interesting and challenging conference season.”

With four starters returning from last year’s dominant squad, including over 75% of their minutes, Vermont is poised for another strong season. Becker has never built a defense this elite, finishing 61st nationally in defensive efficiency last season, including eighth in scoring defense (62.7 PPG allowed) and 29th in points per possession allowed (.85).

Key Players to Watch

The backbone of Vermont’s defense lies in Shamir Bogues and Ileri Ayo-Faleye. Bogues, a transfer from Tarleton State, quickly became Vermont’s highest-usage two-way player. Standing at 6-foot-4, he’s a versatile defender capable of shutting down opponents at the point of attack. He recorded two steals per game last season and led the conference in steal rate (4.1%).

Ayo-Faleye, arguably Vermont’s most dominant interior defender, is a versatile and athletic presence. He excels at defending at all three levels, allowing just .67 PPP in post-up situations (83rd percentile) and .36 PPP in isolation (96th percentile). Together, they form a formidable defensive duo that will be crucial for Vermont’s success this season.

Offensive Adjustments

While Vermont’s defense is top-tier, the offense struggled last season, posting its lowest offensive efficiency mark since 2015. Becker runs a down-tempo, five-out spread offense focused on ball movement and spot-up shooting. However, with Bogues and Ayo-Faleye being less effective shooters, the team faced challenges in spacing and prolonged scoring droughts.

To address this, Becker is looking for improvements from Bogues and Ayo-Faleye in their shooting. Additionally, the addition of Howard transfer Shy Odom could provide the interior scoring threat Vermont lacked last season. Odom, known for his crafty scoring ability, could be the key to unlocking Vermont’s offensive potential.

The Competition: UMass Lowell and Bryant

UMass Lowell

The River Hawks are another team to watch closely this season. With three returning starters—Max Brooks, Cam Morris, and Quinton Mincey—Lowell boasts arguably the conference’s most dynamic offensive forwards. Coach Pat Duquette runs a flex-motion offense that prioritizes on-ball dribble penetration, slashing, and cutting, making them a formidable offensive threat.

Brooks, known for his shot-blocking prowess, is also a significant offensive contributor, scoring 12 points per game on 61% shooting. Morris and Mincey complement him as wing slashers, making Lowell a well-rounded offensive team. However, the River Hawks must address their defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in isolation situations, to compete with Vermont and Bryant.

Bryant

Under first-year head coach Phil Martelli Jr., Bryant transformed its defense last season, ranking second nationally in blocks per game (6.5) and first in at-the-rim points per shot allowed (.95). The Bulldogs’ aggressive ball-screen denial and athleticism make them a tough matchup for any team.

Earl Timberlake, a point-forward type, is the centerpiece of Bryant’s offense. He’s an elite interior scorer and a versatile playmaker, averaging four assists per game. With the return of key players like Connor Withers and Rafael Pinzon, Bryant has the talent to challenge for the conference title.

The Sleepers: Maine, UMBC, and Albany

Maine

Maine is on the cusp of something special under head coach Chris Markwood. With a strong defensive foundation led by Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton, the Black Bears have the potential to compete at a higher level. However, they need to improve their shooting to create space for their dynamic guards.

UMBC

The Retrievers are looking to build on last season’s momentum, bringing back three starters and 65% of their minutes. With a fast-paced, four-guard spread offense, UMBC has the potential to score in bunches. However, their interior defense remains a concern, and they must find a way to shore up their rim protection.

Albany

The Great Danes are a high-variance team with electric talent. Amar’e Marshall is a budding superstar, and the addition of several transfers could elevate Albany’s performance. However, they must address their defensive shortcomings to compete effectively in the America East.

The Bottom Tier: Binghamton and New Hampshire

Binghamton

Binghamton has shown improvement under head coach Levell Sanders, but they face challenges this season with the loss of key players. While Tymu Chenery and Gavin Walsh provide a solid foundation, the Bearcats must find a way to replace the production lost to graduation.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire is in a rebuilding phase after losing key players. Coach Nathan Davis aims to play faster this season, but the Wildcats face significant challenges in replacing their star players. The lack of experience could hinder their progress, making them a team to watch closely.

Final Thoughts

The America East is shaping up to be a competitive league this season. With Vermont, UMass Lowell, and Bryant leading the charge, and several sleeper teams looking to make their mark, fans can expect an exciting season of college basketball. As the league continues to gain recognition, it’s clear that the America East is a conference to watch in the coming years.

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