NFL Week 5 Picks: Underdogs and Favorites to Watch
As we dive into Week 5 of the NFL season, the excitement is palpable. With teams showing varying levels of performance week to week, this week promises to deliver some thrilling matchups that could reshape the playoff picture. Notably, underdogs have been performing well this season, boasting a 53.2% success rate against the spread (33-29-3). With that in mind, let’s explore my three best bets for this week, featuring one underdog and two favorites.
Browns vs. Commanders Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | +3.5 (-120) | +145 | Over 44 (-100) |
| Washington Commanders | -3.5 (+105) | -175 | Under 44 (-110) |
NFL ATS Picks #1: Browns +3.5 (vs. Commanders)
The Cleveland Browns are set to face off against the Washington Commanders, who are currently favored by 3.5 points. The Commanders, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, have been one of the hottest teams in the league, showcasing an explosive offense against the Bengals and Cardinals in recent weeks. However, they are about to encounter a formidable challenge in the Browns’ defense.
Cleveland’s defense has been nothing short of stellar, allowing under 300 yards per game. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is likely to devise a game plan aimed at stifling Daniels’ production, making this matchup a true test for the rookie. On the other side of the ball, the Browns’ offense has struggled, but this game presents a prime opportunity for Deshaun Watson to find his rhythm. The Commanders’ defense has been porous, allowing over 25 points per game and ranking poorly in both pass and rush defense metrics.
Given the current odds, I believe this line reflects an overreaction to Washington’s early success. The Browns’ superior defense and the chance to grab over a field goal make them an appealing pick to cover the spread this Sunday.
Raiders vs. Broncos Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | +3 (-115) | +125 | Over 35.5 (-110) |
| Denver Broncos | -3 (-105) | -150 | Under 35.5 (-110) |
NFL ATS Picks #2: Broncos -3 (vs. Raiders)
In a clash between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos, the Broncos are favored by 3 points. Denver’s defense has been a standout this season, allowing fewer than 10 points per game over their last three outings. With cornerback Pat Surtain locking down opposing receivers, the Raiders will face a significant challenge, especially without star receiver Davante Adams.
The Raiders’ offense has shown flashes but has struggled to find consistency, particularly in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ run defense has been formidable, allowing them to control the game tempo. The low over/under of 35.5 indicates that scoring will be at a premium, making every point crucial.
The Broncos aim to establish a strong ground game, which plays directly into the Raiders’ defensive weaknesses. With the Broncos looking to play mistake-free football, I expect them to win by at least a field goal, making them a solid pick against the spread.
Cowboys vs. Steelers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | +2.5 (-105) | +120 | Over 40.5 (-110) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -2.5 (-115) | -145 | Under 44 (-110) |
NFL ATS Picks #3: Steelers -2.5 (vs. Cowboys)
As the Dallas Cowboys head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, the Steelers are favored by 2.5 points. After suffering their first loss of the season, the Steelers are eager to bounce back. The Cowboys, however, have not looked as dominant as they did last year, particularly on defense, which will be without star linebacker Micah Parsons.
Pittsburgh’s offense, while not explosive, has shown signs of improvement, particularly with Justin Fields under center. The Steelers should be able to move the ball effectively against a Cowboys defense that has struggled recently. The key to this matchup will be Pittsburgh’s defense, which remains one of the top units in the league despite last week’s hiccup against the Colts.
With the home-field advantage and the crowd behind them, I feel confident in the Steelers covering the spread at home. This game could turn into a defensive battle, but I expect Pittsburgh to emerge victorious by at least a field goal.
As we gear up for Week 5, these matchups promise to deliver excitement and intrigue. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, keep an eye on these games as they unfold. Happy betting!