Flushing September: A Tough Start for NFL Picks
As the calendar flips to October, many NFL fans and analysts alike are eager to flush September down the toilet. The month was a rough one for picking games, with many of us feeling the sting of poor predictions. My own picks were no exception, as they stunk worse than a garbage dump. However, I take solace in knowing I’m not alone in this struggle; it’s been a brutal year for NFL game pickers across the board.
In the past week, I managed a lackluster 7-9 record against the spread, which is hardly something to brag about. Yet, despite the struggles, I find myself leading our expert picks at CBS Sports with a 30-31-3 record. That’s a testament to just how challenging September has been for everyone involved. My straight-up picks fared slightly better, ending the week at 8-8, bringing my overall record to an even 32-32. While it’s not leading the pack, it’s certainly close enough to keep the hope alive.
The Bright Side of a Tough Month
Despite the dismal performance, there’s a silver lining: I didn’t go 3-13 against the spread last week like some of my colleagues. Right, Jamey Eisenberg? As we gear up for Week 5, it’s time to look ahead and see if we can turn things around. The NFL season is starting to crystallize, and with that comes the opportunity for better predictions.
Thursday Night Showdown: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Kicking off the week is a crucial divisional matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers impressed last week with a decisive victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Falcons managed to edge out the New Orleans Saints in a tough contest. However, the Atlanta offense has struggled, and with injuries plaguing their offensive line, I believe Todd Bowles will exploit these weaknesses. I’m picking the Buccaneers to take this one on the road.
Pick: Bucs 24, Falcons 20
Sunday Morning Clash: Vikings vs. Jets
As we move into Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings will face off against the New York Jets. The Vikings are riding high with an undefeated record, and Sam Darnold is playing at an MVP level. However, the Jets’ defense poses a significant challenge. After a lifeless performance against Denver, the Jets will need to step up. I foresee a close, low-scoring game, with the Jets edging out the Vikings thanks to their defensive prowess.
Pick: Jets 19, Vikings 16
Bears vs. Panthers: A Battle of Struggling Offenses
In another Sunday matchup, the Chicago Bears will take on the Carolina Panthers. The Bears are coming off a victory, while Andy Dalton and the Panthers are looking to bounce back after a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chicago defense has been solid, and I expect Dalton to struggle against it. With Caleb Williams continuing to improve, I’m confident the Bears will take this one comfortably.
Pick: Bears 24, Panthers 13
Bengals vs. Ravens: A Must-Win for Cincinnati
The Cincinnati Bengals find themselves in a must-win situation against the Baltimore Ravens. With Tee Higgins back in the lineup, the Bengals’ offense is starting to click. The Ravens have been vulnerable to big pass plays, which could be a deciding factor in this game. I expect a high-scoring affair, but in the end, Joe Burrow will lead the Bengals to victory.
Pick: Bengals 34, Ravens 31
Bills vs. Texans: A Shootout in Houston
The Buffalo Bills are on the road again, this time facing the Houston Texans. After a disappointing loss to the Ravens, the Bills are looking to bounce back. Despite the Texans’ struggles on offense, I believe Josh Allen will lead the Bills to a narrow victory in what should be a shootout.
Pick: Bills 30, Texans 28
Jaguars vs. Colts: Jacksonville’s Last Chance?
The Indianapolis Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, and with the Jaguars sitting at 0-4, this game is a must-win for them. The Colts are uncertain about their starting quarterback, which could play a significant role in the outcome. I’m betting on the Jaguars to finally secure their first victory of the season.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Colts 17
Dolphins vs. Patriots: A Struggle for Offense
In a matchup of two struggling teams, the Miami Dolphins will face the New England Patriots. Without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ offense has been anemic, and the Patriots will look to capitalize on this at home. I expect the Patriots to come out on top in a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Patriots 21, Dolphins 16
Commanders vs. Browns: Rookie Momentum
The Washington Commanders are riding high with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, while the Cleveland Browns are struggling with injuries and inconsistent play. With the Browns banged up and on the road, I see the Commanders continuing their momentum and securing a solid victory.
Pick: Commanders 28, Browns 17
Broncos vs. Raiders: A Defensive Battle
The Denver Broncos return home to face the Las Vegas Raiders in what promises to be a defensive showdown. Both teams have struggled offensively, but I believe the Broncos’ defense will shine, allowing them to edge out the Raiders in a close contest.
Pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 14
49ers vs. Cardinals: A Blowout in the Making
The San Francisco 49ers are set to face the Arizona Cardinals, who are coming off a rough outing. With the 49ers’ potent offense and a defense that should dominate, I expect a blowout victory for San Francisco.
Pick: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17
Packers vs. Rams: A Test for Jordan Love
The Green Bay Packers are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Vikings. With Jordan Love showing promise, I expect him to exploit the Rams’ defensive vulnerabilities. The Rams are dealing with injuries, and I believe the Packers will come out on top.
Pick: Packers 31, Rams 19
Giants vs. Seahawks: A Close Contest
The New York Giants will travel to face the Seattle Seahawks. With the Giants coming off a long rest and the Seahawks dealing with defensive injuries, this game could be closer than expected. However, I believe the Seahawks will manage to secure a narrow victory at home.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Giants 26
Monday Night Showdown: Saints vs. Chiefs
In the Monday night finale, the New Orleans Saints will face the Kansas City Chiefs. The Saints are on the road for consecutive games, and they’ll be up against a Chiefs team that is starting to find its rhythm. I expect Patrick Mahomes to shine, leading the Chiefs to a solid victory.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Saints 20
As we dive into Week 5, the hope is that the predictions will improve and the NFL landscape will become clearer. With each passing week, the excitement builds, and the stakes get higher. Here’s to a better October!