College Football Week 4: Analyzing Our Favorite NCAAF Favorites
As we dive into College Football Week 4, excitement fills the air as fans gear up for another thrilling weekend of action. This week, we’re shining a spotlight on two of our favorite college football favorites, affectionately dubbed "overdogs," as we look to capitalize on their potential to cover the spread.
Friday Night Lights: Nebraska vs. Illinois
Game Details:
- Date: Friday, September 20
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Network: FOX
- Spread: Nebraska -7.5 vs. Illinois
In this Big Ten showdown, we’re backing the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini. Nebraska comes into this matchup with a strong defensive reputation, and it’s hard to overlook the blue-collar toughness that they bring to the field.
Why Nebraska?
Nebraska’s defense has been a force to reckon with, and they have yet to face a team that can effectively run against them. Illinois, on the other hand, has struggled significantly in the rushing department. Despite some success in gaining minimal yardage, their overall rushing metrics are concerning. They rank 91st in Rushing Success Rate and 56th in Line Yards, indicating that their offensive line is not moving the pile effectively.
Bret Bielema, the head coach of Illinois, has emphasized the need for a strong running game against Nebraska. However, with running backs Kaden Feagin and Ca’Lil Valentine averaging less than three yards after contact, it’s clear that Illinois is not equipped to win the battle in the trenches.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been the lone bright spot for the Illini, but relying solely on him against a formidable Nebraska defense could prove detrimental. Nebraska’s defensive Havoc ranking of 17th compared to Illinois’ 101st in Havoc Allowed suggests that the Cornhuskers will be living in the backfield, creating chaos for the Illini offense.
With Nebraska’s offensive line protecting freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola effectively, and the team’s ability to establish the run, we believe they will dominate this matchup and cover the spread.
Saturday Showdown: Texas Tech vs. Arizona State
Game Details:
- Date: Saturday, September 21
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: FS1
- Spread: Texas Tech -3 vs. Arizona State
As we shift our focus to Saturday, we’re looking at Texas Tech as they take on Arizona State. The Red Raiders are coming off a strong performance, and we believe they have the edge in this matchup.
Why Texas Tech?
Arizona State has started the season with a 3-0 record, but a closer examination of their victories reveals a less-than-impressive slate of opponents. Wins over Mississippi State, Wyoming, and Texas State don’t carry the weight they once might have, especially considering the struggles of those teams.
While Arizona State has shown improvement, their success has been aided by a favorable turnover margin and a high conversion rate on fourth downs. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has provided a spark, but he remains limited as a passer, which could be a significant advantage for Texas Tech’s defense.
Texas Tech has faced its own challenges this season, including injuries to key players. However, they are starting to get healthier, and quarterback Behren Morton is finally looking like his old self. With 974 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through three games, Morton is poised to exploit an Arizona State secondary that ranks 97th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
The Red Raiders’ offense is beginning to click, and with the return of key players, they should be able to put up points against an Arizona State defense that has shown vulnerabilities.
Insights from the "Big Bets on Campus" Podcast
These insights come from our weekly discussions on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, where we analyze matchups and share our favorite picks. With a focus on data-driven analysis and a keen understanding of team dynamics, we aim to provide our listeners with the best betting advice possible.
As we gear up for Week 4, keep an eye on these matchups. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, there’s plenty of excitement to be found in college football this weekend.
For more insights and analysis, be sure to follow our podcast and stay tuned for updates as the season progresses. Happy betting!